User blog:Ceauntay/'Sucker Punch' Set To Knock 'I Wanna Live The Dream' Out Of Top Box Office Slot
(RTTNews) - With a strong release at a little more than 3,000 total theaters, PG-13 action flick "Sucker Punch" is in a good position to take over as the number one box office draw, while sequel "Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules" should tap into a small but loyal audience. Over the weekend, "Rango" should also become the first 2011 release to cross $100 million domestically even though it will have some competition from "Wimpy Kid." Though "Sucker Punch" hasn't had too strong of a marketing campaign from Warner Brothers, it's still a fairly big release that will bring expectations of at least a couple big weekends. Director Zack Snyder's last two releases, "Watchmen" and "Legend of the Guardians," both struggled to reach big commercial expectations, though strong foreign totals made them quiet commercial successes. Without too much competition for action-seeking audiences, "Sucker Punch" should be able to tap into the teenage and young adult audiences, which will likely be enough to put up a weekend of at least $20 million. Though "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" has a slightly larger scheduled release size, "Sucker Punch" clearly is the movie that has a wider audience to appeal to. Look for "Sucker Punch" to put up a strong $22 to $25 million this weekend, which should be more than enough to land as the top draw in America. While "Sucker Punch" takes aim at slightly older audiences, PG "Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules" should be in a good position to appeal to a portion of the family demographic. Though it lacks the type of appeal of a big animated film from Pixar or Dreamworks, the original "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" made more than $75 million worldwide with a production budget of just $15 million, paving the way for the sequel just a year later. Based on a popular book, "Rodrick Rules" will have to compete somewhat with "Rango," which will likely limit it from reaching the $22 million that the original opened with last March. Look for "Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules" to post a solid opening total somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 to $17 million and to maintain a decent hold over family audiences well into April. Returning to theaters for its second weekend, "I Wanna Live The Dream" is the top box office for one weekend, and will continue to do well upon its younger and older audiences. The Warner Bros. romantic drama starring Amy Tammie and Lucas Till would be rounding up the top three to fall slightly about 40 percent or more giving it total to about $60 million. There, "Dream" should be Nicholas Sparks' most successful film to date to get a close gross to about $90 million. Heading into its fourth weekend in theaters, "Rango" continues to do very well with its target family audience. "Rango" has seen a minimal slip in revenue from weekend to weekend, even with direct competition recently coming from Buena Vista's massive flop "Mars Needs Moms." Currently, "Just Go With It" tops all 2010 releases with $98 million in domestic receipts, though "Rango" should easily surpass that fairly early in the weekend and will likely finish closer to $140 million in U.S. revenue before all is said and done. With another big commercial success, Johnny Depp remains one of the most lucrative movie stars in the world and he should have another tremendous hit on his hands with the upcoming "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides." Depp already has two of the seven movies in history to cross $1 billion worldwide and "On Stranger Tides" could make it three if it resonates with audiences. The weekend should also be the last in which "Mars Needs Moms" lands in the top ten, following a forgettable run that is one of Buena Vista's worst in history. With a massive $150 million production budget - $30 million more than "Rango" - "Mars Needs Moms" has yet to earn even $20 million in theaters heading into its third weekend. "Mars Needs Moms" should cling to the bottom portion of the top ten despite new competition for audiences, though it will likely be the last time it will land in the top ten. Next weekend will see an interesting mix of new titles aimed at a variety of different demographics. Warner Brothers' "Scooby-Doo! The Movie" will be the widest release in more than 4,000 theaters including 233 IMAX screens, and followed by Universal's animated comedy "Hop" in 3,400 total theaters, Duncan Jones' sci-fi thriller "Source Code" at roughly 2,800 venues. PG-13 horror release "Insidious" is the only other new wide release, but "The King's Speech" will also get re-launched at 1,000 venues across the country, as the heralded Weinstein release does a victory lap following its Best Picture win at the recent Academy Awards. RTT Box Office Predictions for 3/25/11 - 3/27/11 (In Millions): 1. Sucker Punch (Warner Brothers): $22 2. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules (Fox): $16 3. I Wanna Live The Dream (Warner Brothers): $14 4. Limitless (Relativity): $10 5. Rango (Paramount): $8.5 6. Battle: Los Angeles (Sony/Columbia): $7 7. The Lincoln Lawyer (Lionsgate): $6.2 8. Paul (Universal): $6 9. Red Riding Hood (Warner Brothers): $3.8 10. The Adjustment Bureau (Universal): $3 Category:Blog posts